Cory Ondrejka, former CTO and co-founder of Linden Lab, has posted his predictions for 2009. Amongst them is a rosy outlook for growth in our virtual world.

“By shockingly good, let’s say 50% growth in concurrency and James’ measure of active users.  Why do I expect SL to rock 2009?  A few reasons.  First, world-wide recession makes SL more valuable as a source of income, cost effective collaboration tool, substitute for expensive travel, and educational resource.  Second, the same recession — combined with Lively’s demise — means competition will remain non-existent.”

Check out the rest of his predictions on his Blog, collapsing geography.

I came across several interesting news items and SL events that serve as reminders that SL is a great tool for educaion, fundraising, and awareness.

Yesterday the Second Nature lecture series hosted a Virtual Conference on Climate Change. Directors and professors from Imperial College and Stanford University shared their views on topics such as ‘Technology in the Greenhouse: Research to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions‘.

Today at 2 pm SL time the University of Texas will be showcasing the work of several students who are competing for a grant from the Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter Partnership Foundation. Their projects are exploring  ideas for using Virtual Worlds for community service, part of a class called Working in a Virtual world. You can learn more about their projects, as well as several other fundraising efforts, on Educators Coop island.

Glasgow Caledonian University is using Second Life as a training tool for their nursing students who can interect with virtual patients before being confronted with actual patients. They’ve also used SL to give prospective students a chance to experience their campus via virtual tours. “Caledonian Academy will lead a competition to explore how we can exploit the potential of 3D environments for learning, but in the meantime construction of the university’s Second Life site is proving to be a valuable learning experience for students in itself.”

The U.S. Airforce is using SL to promote themselves and provide information on their MyBase sim. Visitors can fly a virtual P51C Mustang, try out the challenge course, or visit a virtual Air Force museum.

Looks like the Army is getting in on the act as well, preparing a collection of sims to be used as virtual recruitment centers.

Traffic Bots suck. There’s no denying that having an army of undead avatars constantly logged into the grid puts unnecessary strain on the system. It’s obvious that something needs to be done about these kinds of bots and I think the best way to get rid of the problem is to make them obsolete. Stop tallying Traffic numbers.  Do we really need an arbitrary, easily manipulated number to tell us where the supposed ‘good stuff’ is?

I suppose this wouldn’t get rid of zombie bots altogether. Some would still constantly run bots to give the appearance of a busy sim, but I think without traffic rankings the number of these bots would be drastically reduced.

So how many traffic bots are there? Estimates range wildly – and are proposed with much conviction. In other words – lots of arguing about these numbers :) Check out this forum thread for a sample.

Linden Lab estimates that bots make up about 10-15% of the total User Hours, others have estimated up to 50% of the population at any given time consists of bots. I’m of the opinion that the number is somewhere between these two figures, most likely closer to 15%. Here’s a little experimental formula that I came up with while reading the forums tonight.

+ LL estimates 10-15% User Hours are racked up by Bots.
+ Most traffic bots probably run 24/7
+ 34,800,000 User Hours in August

So a bit of math might produce an interesting figure. 15% of the monthly user hours divided by 31 days divided by 24 hours.

34,800,000 * .15 / 31 / 24 = 7,016 full-time traffic bots?

Accurate? Probably not, but I bet it’s somewhere in the ball park.

However many traffic bots there really are, it’s too many. There are plenty of legitimate uses for programmed avatars, but clogging up the grid with thousands of lifeless zombies is not one of them.

Which is worse for our Second Life culture as a whole: LL’s OpenSpace pricing change, or hysterical rants and calls for a mass exodus?

It’s hard to deny that LL has handled this OpenSpace issue poorly. They lower prices, increase prims, then wonder why people are actually using these sims for more than just empty waterways. They really should have known that folks would squeeze in every last prim and script that they could – that’s the way it goes on every other piece of land in SL. Raising the prices without first enforcing some sort of limits was a serious blunder and a slap in the face to anyone who uses OpenSpace sims as they were intended.

Mistake? Yes. World-ending, grid-shattering mistake. No – not unless we compound the issue by overreacting.

I’m leaving. I’m never spending money in SL again. Let’s sue. You’ve shattered my dreams. Let’s all leave SL.

It seems to me that this massive outpouring of negative energy is doing more to harm SL than the OpenSpace price hike. How can people claim to be supporting the residents while urging them to leave? Abandoning our land and walking away will hurt the residents more than it hurts LL. We do have every right to be upset. But there has to be a more constructive way of letting LL know how we feel.

I have a long history of supporting most of LL’s crazy decisions, and even I am angry. I rent an OpenSpace sim that I probably can’t afford after the price hike. Shoot, I can barely afford it now. :) But i’m not going to let this ruin my Second Life. I’m going to adapt, move on, and continue to enjoy this amazing world that we’ve created.

2k Suisei pointed us to a very interesting set of votes on the SL issue Tracker (JIRA). Would you prefer that LL concentrate on a mesh import feature, or improved in-world modelling tools?

It’s a difficult choice, since the details are very vague. My first thought was to vote for mesh import, but after thinking a bit I think I will vote for improved in-world tools. A few of my thoughts:

I guess if I had my preference I would vote for some in-world tools that allowed us to make sculpties or other mesh-based objects.

What do you think?